TIMING MODEL-1

“Time the Waves”

Explore how TIMING MODEL-1 “Time the Waves” functions, and delve into its example backtested performance metrics. If you find this timing model intriguing, consider subscribing at the bottom of the page.

Scaling in to a position

TIMING MODEL-1, “Time the Waves,’” provides a way to build a full investment position more gradually by “scaling in”.

Scaling in to a position offers several advantages for the investor:

Risk Management: Spreading risk across multiple entries minimizes potential losses if the price moves unfavorably.

Improved Average Price: Buying at different levels can lead to a more favorable average price, enhancing overall profitability, especially if the market dips or trades sideways following a key entry signal.

Emotional Control: Staged entries help maintain emotional discipline, reducing impulsive actions associated with all-or-nothing decisions.

Confirmation of Trends: Scaling in serves as a method to confirm trend strength, allowing investors to align with the market by starting with a small position and adding as the trend persists.

Reduced Pressure: Smaller initial positions alleviate psychological pressure, facilitating adherence to the trading plan and avoiding impulsive decisions.

It also psychologically facilitates the involvement of new subscribers who join midway through a timing wave, allowing them the option to participate. This aligns with the notion that it is less challenging to invest a modest amount of capital initially, rather than committing fully, especially considering the possibility that the wave might be concluding.

Example Backtested Performance Metrics

In this example, TIMING MODEL-1 “Time the Waves” invests 10% capital per day following a buy signal, then sold the entire position on the next sell signal. Results shown utilized a 2:1 margin ratio.

TIMING MODEL-1 “Time the Waves” is designed to perform optimally when using investment vehicles that closely track the Nasdaq-100 Index, hence the example uses QQQ (non-leveraged Nasdaq-100 ETF), QLD (2X leverage Nasdaq-100 ETF), TQQQ (3X leverage Nasdaq-100 ETF), and a select group of Nasdaq-100 stocks nicknamed the “Magnificent 7”, as well as FNGU (3X leverage FAANG+ ETN).

Although the examples were backtested with varying amounts of historical data, all use the same underlying algorithmic market timing tested on 36+ years of historical index data.

Shown with a variety of investment vehicles for comparison purposes

Read about risks associated with leveraged investments

Read about risks associated with leveraged investments

*”Magnificent Seven” is a group of seven big tech stocks: Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Meta Platforms (META), Tesla (TSLA).

Read about risks associated with leveraged investments

Equity Curve vs Buy and Hold

Hypothetical growth of $15000 over time.

*”Magnificent Seven” is a group of seven big tech stocks: Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Meta Platforms (META), Tesla (TSLA).

Annualized Return and Drawdown

*”Magnificent Seven” is a group of seven big tech stocks: Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Meta Platforms (META), Tesla (TSLA).

Monthly Performance

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecAnnual
19991.751.4-6.322.3-4.2711.661.2119.5123.5352.61188.18%
2000-3.8223.92-1.127.46-13.7302.310000011.78%
2001-0.960011.870000-0.3616.4936.48.189.62%
20020000000004.7923.514.9235.79%
20030005.0816.910.6812.719.74-6.2618.131.115.9281.43%
20042.85-2.80.630000-0.111.889.7112.083.9430.85%
2005-7.340000-4.4415.16-3.022.49-2.9912.25-4.075.87%
200611.60000000.928.19.516.72-3.9936.61%
20074.29-3.350.9411.166.370.782.2300.326.660032.62%
20080000.297.98-3.460000004.55%
2009001.422.56.335.47172.8711.04-6.0912.8410.28117.56%
2010-12.69.5915.364.240.860-0.37-9.7926.412.58-0.59.3861.70%
20115.466.39-1.155.67-3.61000.34-0.8800-0.5911.69%
201216.712.869.61-0.2003.0610.294.0800070.45%
2013-0.220.565.584.956.99-1.060.71-1.958.959.736.985.1456.28%
2014-3.769.4-6-0.669.335.662.1810.10.2705.73-1.6533.22%
201502.33-5.073.444.58-5.3912.92001.940.81015.37%
2016002.24-6.629.06-5.0414.562.073.89-2.840.861.6419.63%
201710.228.633.65.317.7-4.997.964.17-1.019.113.90.7769.99%
201819.140001.831.625.3111.78-0.89-6.540-0.0134.41%
201910.615.877.4812.220000-2.048.658.057.1374.01%
20206.1113.010.1117.8113.1612.1714.4820.880.15-9.9623.119.38201.65%
20210.1614.8700.51-2.312.285.778.310.912.553.09055.03%
2022000.860.04001.995.08003.43-1.2610.44%
20233.66-3.619.40.9715.612.287.660000.7969.67%

*QQQ L/S means this sample performance metric goes both Long and Short on QQQ

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecAnnual
20061.8415.3718.0711.67-20.3923.33%
20076.87-7.91.4224.212.10.862.3500.7612.10062.06%
20080000.3716.05-8.070000007.08%
2009002.7547.5611.5310.9435.695.1223.13-13.0627.2522.12345.13%
2010-27.0722.4234.728.181.350-0.76-19.1959.6526.7-1.9419.82151.35%
201110.3212.58-2.8512.12-8.02000.72-2.3600-0.8721.31%
201235.2726.5520.27-0.46005.5221.318.97000185.86%
2013-0.630.7111.749.113.99-2.331.41-4.3518.920.4113.8411.64139.73%
2014-8.2421.61-11.38-2.3319.512.113.8920.960.34011.65-3.1776.39%
201504.72-9.866.549.19-10.1726.85003.961.58032.14%
2016004.67-13.5618.76-9.9830.853.68.23-6.331.24.3140.32%
201721.2917.697.6610.4515.34-10.2817.326.96-1.2818.657.361.4181.06%
201841.830003.462.389.9524.75-1.64-13.920-0.0374.41%
201921.4511.1615.0524.830000-3.9616.8516.2415.18191.32%
202011.1427.590.237.582525.9130.4244.820.35-20.4150.4819.9737.39%
2021-0.4431.4700.65-5.4426.111.0916.91.695.155.780130.74%
2022001.380.300410.03006.51-2.6720.62%
20237.23-9.0941.540.6630.9924.5414.4700164.05%

Read about risks associated with leveraged investments

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecAnnual
20100.34-19.0967.526.14-1.8118.85155.68%
201115.5118.21-4.9418.53-12.01001.06-4.4800-1.828.33%
201256.742.4831.66-0.56008.2232.6612.94000373.95%
2013-0.740.8417.6913.9221.11-3.922.14-6.7330.1630.3520.8517.56258.59%
2014-12.8133.35-16.4-4.3729.7218.934.9233.420.57018.25-5.32126.03%
201507.2-14.819.6713.48-15.2142.1005.912.41048.53%
2016006.89-20.1229.17-15.5450.025.7411.57-9.262.335.4161.36%
201732.6127.7611.1615.9623.01-16.4427.4910.37-2.0728.3410.662.43349.98%
201867.250005.161.9115.8138.74-3.11-20.190-0.09122.50%
201932.217.5221.7839.670000-6.0725.1824.8922.85376.72%
202015.6545.240.2758.2138.938.4546.0872.420.42-30.6885.0131.152079.98%
2021-3.9352.4701.05-9.1841.2516.5925.442.727.797.360230.10%
2022002.130.31005.9815.13008.87-3.5431.27%
202310.77-15.1564.890.1347.6737.6320.870002.72291.57%

Read about risks associated with leveraged investments

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecAnnual
201800000-0.4-0.40%
201939.010.2821.1130.460000-16.7238.248.2647.66454.95%
202051.0277.910.879.5538.6351.6192.75157.991.52-30.6559.8772.159747.71%
20210.4110.80-8.41-18.1470.62-13.6918.6710.164.93-3.350209.80%
202200-2.124.39004.2317.820018.865.1656.84%
202319.62-6.4795.88-10.29132.745.87-8.660004.15534.85%

Read about risks associated with leveraged investments

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TUC MODEL-1




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